Another U.S. presidential election is past, and many astrologers, including myself, were wrong about the country’s choice. Why? Astrology, by its nature, is not good at predicting outcomes. 
Nevertheless, my perception is that most experienced forecasting astrologers have a pretty good track record on these things – greater than chance and often better. I’ve been correct for seven out of nine elections – about 78% of the time. Not a fabulous grade, but I always remember Bob Zoller saying, “If you’re getting 75%, you’re doing really well.” Although we have a 50-50 chance of getting it correct each time, there’s only about a 7% chance of calling heads correctly in seven out of nine coin tosses, the reason that casinos are generally rather profitable for the house. It’s also why there’s such an interest in financial astrology: if astrologers can give clients even a slight edge, they’re ahead of the game.
Still, most of us call elections outcomes only once every four years, so we’re not the most experienced. We may imagine that we can figure out one specific technique that will solve the puzzle once and for all. But even history professor Allan Lichtman who developed his “13 Keys to the White House” has been right only eight times out of ten (80%). The pollsters and commentators certainly don’t have better records.
I did forecasting for clients for over 20 years and was quickly convinced of the foolishness of trying to predict certain outcomes. Clients are often very eager for outcomes! You can “guesstimate,” but I always found it better to describe the general astrological weather rather than suggest a definitive answer. A specific horary can get you a little closer. But we often just don’t know.
Astrology provides a window on reality that mainstream culture and experts lack, a glimpse into the Mind of God, if you will. But it’s still only a glimpse, and there are as many different viewpoints as there are techniques. And there may be no definitive reality in this heavy sublunary world. (I doubt that an AI program written by top astrologers could call outcomes correctly 100% of the time. Weather forecasting is supposed to be only 70% accurate for a week ahead.)
Astrology does better in describing the quality of a situation instead of quantitative analyses. Symbols give wonderful insight, but by their very nature, they rarely provide hard and fast, definitive answers. It’s not math or even science. And there are many variable interpretations possible in keeping with a particular influence. We do very well with birth chart delineations. But another layer of complexity is added with any forecasting technique, and timing is often not as exact as we hope it will be (all reasons why rectification is so challenging).
We work through inference and judgment. For a presidential election, I consider who has more success-oriented aspects and also which candidate has a more compelling interaction with the U.S. chart. I usually use both longitude (regular chart placements) and declination, transits and progressions, because I feel that together they give a fuller view.
As you cannot separate the dancer from the dance, you also cannot separate the astrologer from their use of a technique. It’s never the technique alone. Of course, no one can escape a certain amount of bias, politically or astrologically. But that doesn’t really explain why 64% of astrologers who Mark Cullen surveyed in 2024 thought that Kamala Harris would win and 53.5% of astrologers in 2020 forecast a Trump win (presuming that the astrologer pool hadn’t shifted dramatically in 4 years).
There seemed to be a number who were correct in their forecasts of a 2024 Trump win because he had Jupiter transiting his 10th house. But Jupiter is not a panacea, as most experienced astrologers know. We can’t conclude that Jupiter through the 10th house wins every time, and its influence doesn’t last long. If it were that simple no one would get it wrong.
House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries had transiting Jupiter trining his Jupiter at the time of the election, and his position remains unchanged. Instead of winning, his book for young people about democracy was published at that time. Publication is an important Jupiter theme, so we’d have to look elsewhere to explain why he didn’t advance in the House (though we lack a birth time for him). Jupiter will sextile his Sun and Mars in Leo right after the inauguration. This could facilitate a number of things but probably won’t make him speaker.
I lost a high paying magazine column when Jupiter trined my Moon. Zoller would have said, “You’ve been released” and been correct, but it was still a disappointment. Perhaps Kamala Harris feels the same with her progressed Moon exactly conjunct U.S. progressed Jupiter, with transiting Jupiter on her Ascendant and trine her Sun in May. But as Evangeline Adams said, “Jupiter does not move the world alone.” Adams also had a good election record, but got it wrong sometimes, too. Astrology elevates no one to god-like prophetic status.
So why do we keep trying if we can’t be assured of success? I personally believe that we can stretch ourselves and improve our skills by doing it. It’s the future, after all. Will we convince non-believers of the validity of astrology if more of us consistently “get it right”? Hardly. And when pollsters and political commentators can’t do better, why not try?
My own history with election forecasting (written in 2021).
My previous October and November 2024 posts show what I analyzed and my thinking.